With Euro 2012 around the corner, and me being some sort of demi-God of football knowledge, here are some top tips to make money from the bookies.
Winner: Germany look a good bet to win the tournament, but at 3/1 there isn't much point backing them. If you feel like it though, a cheeky tenner will get you a night out if they win. Spain are 11/4 which is ridiculously short and they won't win anyway. I'll be sticking a couple of quid on Russia. They're at 20/1, unbeaten in 14 games and have the easiest group. Expect them to come out on top against Poland, Greece and the Czech Republic. Following that they'll have a tough match against the runner up in the Group of Death, but a strong defence with Igor Akinfeev being protected by Berezutskiy and Ignashevic means they should be tough to break down and they have quality up front in Dzagoev, Arshavin, Pavlyuchenko and Kerzhakov. Although you wouldn't make them favourites, Advocaat's side would only have to win 3 matches once they get out of the group stage. As Greece showed in 2004, being solid in defence and lethal on the break can take you all the way. France at 10/1 and Italy at 14/1 could also be worth a punt.
Top Scorer: Cristiano Ronaldo has had a phenomenal goalscoring season, and is decent value at 12/1, but question marks remain over whether he can score enough goals in a poor Portugal side in a very tough group. Miroslav Klose always seems to score goals in international tournaments and might be worth a shot at 14/1, and you can get 20/1 on Germany winning it with him as top scorer. However, I have put a mighty £1 on Zlatan Ibrahimovic. 40/1 is an incredible value for a man who scored 35 goals in 44 games this season - one more than Wayne Rooney who is at 33/1 and suspended for the first two games! The long odds are likely due to his presence in an average Swedish team, but England and Ukraine have shaky defences, and Ibra's skill and power could seriously expose the likes of Jagielka and Lescott.
Finalists: A Germany v Russia final comes in at 28/1, which could tie in nicely with previous bets. However, if you'd rather not put all your eggs in one basket, Italy v France at 40/1 looks good value. Both sides breezed through qualifying, and should get out of their groups, and while you wouldn't make either side favourites to beat Spain, Germany or Holland, France are somewhat of an unknown quantity and it's never wise to write off Italy.
Group Winners/Runners up:
Group A: Hard to see past Russia for group winners (8/5), but 6/4 for a solid but unspectacular Czech Republic side to come in behind them is decent.
Group B: Germany should get top spot here. While 18/1 is tempting for Denmark, there's a reason their odds are so long. Holland at 4/7 to just sneak it from Denmark and Portugal.
Group C: Much dependent on how good Italy are when they arrive. Spain, much like Brazil, do not like facing Italy. Indeed, Italy were the last side to stop Spain from scoring, back at Euro 2008 as the Spanish won on penalties. That was a great Spanish team and a poor Italian one and Italy look in better shape now. An opening day win for Italy could see them finish top at 7/2. I can't see Croatia or Ireland being worth a punt to qualify, so it's Spain to follow them at (1/7)
Group D: A very interesting one, and hard to predict. France SHOULD have enough to top the group (7/4) but from there it's hard to predict. Home advantage could spur Ukraine on, Roy Hodgson's England look decently set up to grind out results and Sweden look solid and will be dangerous if Ibrahimovic is firing. Tentatively I'd back Sweden at 2-1.
Oddities: Italy to be knocked out in the semi final is 5/1 which looks a good bet if they manage to win Group C. Shane Long for Ireland's top scorer is at 12/1, which looks decent given they probably won't score many goals - one goal may realistically be enough. An outside bet of Spain not to qualify at 6/1 might be worth a shot for the more adventurous. If they lose to Italy in the first game and are frustrated by Ireland in the second it's certainly possible.
So concludes this blog. Drop me a comment with your tips if you so desire, and be sure and come back here and abuse my predictions when they all go horribly wrong. Good luck everyone!
(odds from Ladbrokes, bet 365 and oddschecker.com)
